FrogBlood: The Outpost

FrogBlood. Conviction. Not hype. A jungle outpost at dusk: a misty river with a watchtower, supply crates stenciled BMNR and SOFI, a lantern, a knife on the map table and a sign that reads Guaranteed returns: BS.
Froggy, the FrogBlood frog, in his red bandana
Froggy's command post

The Outpost

Crypto roots, iron stomach. I buy support and I buy fear. I don't chase and I don't panic sell. These are the instruments I check before I pull the trigger.

Conviction. Not hype.

Field instruments

Live readings · sources and times inside each instrument

The Compass

Crypto Fear & Greed

Crypto sentiment dial from 0 to 100
Unavailable

This reading is out of date. The source hasn’t updated recently.
Source and timing

Crypto Fear & Greed from Alternative.me, updated once a day. The category words are theirs: Extreme Fear 0 to 24, Fear 25 to 46, Neutral 47 to 54, Greed 55 to 75, Extreme Greed 76 to 100.

The Barometer

VIX · Expected stock market volatility

VIX dial, display scale 0 to 60
Unavailable

This reading is out of date. The source hasn’t updated recently.
Sources and timing

VIX from Yahoo Finance, about 15 minutes delayed. Calm under 15, Normal 15 to 20, Nervous 20 to 30, Fear 30 and up. The dial shows 0 to 60; a reading above 60 keeps its real number and shows “Above scale.” CNN’s stock Fear & Greed is a separate measure with its own words.

The Depth Gauge

ETH’s market value relative to Bitcoin

Where ETH sits in its 3-year range against Bitcoin, low to high3-YR HIGH3-YR LOW
Unavailable

This reading is out of date. The source hasn’t updated recently.
Method and timing

The big number is ETH’s total market value divided by Bitcoin’s (from CoinLore’s market totals). The percentile ranks one ETH’s price in BTC against every daily close of the past 3 years (Yahoo Finance), so the tube shows where today sits in that range.

Supply Lines

What's feeding the market: rates, oil and metals.

10-year yield

 
 

WTI crude oil

 
 

Gold and silver

A gold bar
 
 
Gold, past 6 months
A silver bar
 
 
Silver, past 6 months

Last decision

 

Next Fed decision

 
 

See the market’s expectations for a rate cut, hold or hike at the selected meeting.

View CME FedWatch odds ↗
Choose your meeting date in FedWatch. Meeting dates and times from the Federal Reserve’s calendar.
About these readings

10-year yield: the Cboe 10-year index, checked against the Treasury’s official yield. The sparkline shows six months.

Oil: WTI crude, front-month futures. The sight glass shows where today sits in its six-month range (…).

Gold and silver: front-month futures, per troy ounce. Sparklines show six months.

Fed: meeting dates and times from the Federal Reserve’s calendar.

 

Froggy: The big seven. I check these before coffee.

The Seven

 

The Trillion Dollar Club

 

Crates are labeled. Contents may be volatile.

Two olive supply crates stenciled BMNR and SOFI

ETH Treasury

ETH treasury companies: what you pay for each $1 of reported ETH holdings

 

The River

Is the river rising or falling? How many of the names I track closed the month above their monthly band.

 

Stocks
  
ETFs
  
Crypto
  

 

Near the band

Came back above

Slipped below

The names I track: 39 big US companies, 5 ETFs, and the top 50 coins by market value. Coins are re-ranked each month; the change compares the same coins in both months. Lists show stocks and coins.

Every name and how it's counted, on the monthly bands board →

The Currents

Which sectors are leading the market, which are turning, and which left-behind ones sit near their monthly band?

Reading the sectors…

The Map Table

Top coins near their monthly band, where I go hunting for bottoms.

The Cycle Map: all top 50 coins →
The Logbook

Today and the next two trading days: the big US data and the biggest earnings.

Full logbook: every report and earlier results →
A wooden sign: Guaranteed returns, stamped BS

The Hype Test

Does waiting for a sale beat buying every month? No guarantees, just the numbers.

$100 a month into Bitcoin

$100 a month into Bitcoin since January 2018, spent four different ways.

 

Run it on any coin or stock